Where We Stand: Welterweight Division | August 2024

Outlook: Muhammad never lost belief in himself, his journey or the work he put in ahead of his first title shot. And when he got his shot, he made the most of it. The doubters may have quieted a bit, but there’s still some work to do to win everyone over to his corner, although he seems more than OK with proving people wrong. Muhammad likely has a date with Shavkat Rakhmonov coming in the future, and if he can become the first man to beat Rakhmonov, he might finally earn the respect from a sector of the fanbase, as overdue as it may be. 

1) Leon Edwards

Last Fight: Unanimous Decision Loss vs Belal Muhammad (7/27/2024)

Next fight: N/A

Outlook: “Rocky” couldn’t find his rhythm despite some good flashes of his championship form in Manchester. He is now likely a win or two away from getting back into a title fight, but he has options and time on his side. He holds wins over Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, so a fight against Jack Della Maddalena or Ian Machado Garry could be good opportunities to cement himself on the inside track to a title shot. 

2) Kamaru Usman

Last Fight: Unanimous Decision Loss vs Khamzat Chimaev (10/21/2023)

Next fight: N/A

Outlook: The undefeated 29-year-old seems like the clear-cut No. 1 contender and first challenger to Muhammad’s title reign. For as hyped a prospect as he has been, Rakhmonov’s climb has been steady since joining the promotion in October 2020. Six wins and six finishes later (pushing both totals to 18), Rakhmonov is primed to get his chance at gold at some point in the near future. 

4) Colby Covington

Last Fight: Unanimous Decision Loss vs Leon Edwards (12/17/2023)

Next fight: N/A

Outlook: Jack Della Maddalena aced his biggest test to date when he knocked out Gilbert Burns. He faced plenty of adversity in that fight, but he ultimately weathered the storms on the ground to find his window of opportunity to pick up yet another finish. Della Maddalena is Australia’s next best chance to get another title Down Under, and “JDM” seems allergic to ducking fellow contenders. He called out Rakhmonov although that fight seems unlikely for now. That said, a fight against Usman, Edwards or Covington would all make plenty of sense for him as would a rebooked matchup against Sean Brady should the American get past Burns. 

In the Mix: Ian Machado Garry, Sean Brady, Gilbert Burns

Outlook: Love him or hate him, Ian Machado Garry has passed every single test with composure and class in the Octagon. The undefeated Irishman has already picked up wins over Geoff Neal and Michael “Venom” Page in 2024 and is in position to put himself in the title picture with another win before year’s end. Whether that comes against Covington or one of the former champions in the Top 5, he seems primed for a marquee matchup or even a main event. Speaking of main events, Sean Brady has the biggest opportunity of his career opposite Gilbert Burns on September 7. The winner of that fight could set themselves up for a Top 5 matchup next time out.