On October 25, UFC President Dana White revealed heavyweight champion Jon Jones suffered a pectoral injury that potentially requires eight months of recovery after surgery. The injury forced the UFC to postpone Jones’ heavyweight title clash with Stipe Miocic, and search for a replacement main event at UFC 295 in New York City.
In its place atop the card is a bout between former light heavyweight champion Jiri Procházka and former middleweight champion Alex Pereira. They will fight for the vacant light heavyweight strap to close out the show at Madison Square Garden.
Traditionally, when champions suffer long-term injuries, an interim champion is crowned. And in UFC 295’s co-main event, two of the heavyweight division’s scariest contenders will fight for the division’s interim strap while they await Jones’ return.
Order UFC 295: Procházka vs Pereira
Russia’s Sergei Pavlovich, who finished his last six opponents, will face Tom Aspinall, who hopes to become the first UFC champion from England.
Pavlovich, the No. 2 ranked heavyweight contender, was 12-0 entering his UFC debut against Alistair Overeem, who defeated the Russian powerhouse in the first round. While the result made it seem like Pavlovich still had some work to do to compete with the division’s best, he has since rebounded with six straight knockouts.
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Not only has he finished six opponents in a row, but all of Pavlovich’s victories also came in the first round, including a 54-second knockout victory over Tai Tuivasa and 55-second win against UFC knockout king Derrick Lewis. The scariest thing about Pavlovich isn’t just his impressive striking and knockout power, but his willingness to stand and trade with some of the heavyweight division’s hardest hitters in recent history and his ability to put them away in seconds.
Through only seven UFC fights, Pavlovich is statistically one of the most devastating strikers the UFC has seen in its 30-year history. With six consecutive finishes, Pavlovich sits second all-time behind UFC legend Chuck Liddell, with seven. But unlike “The Iceman,” all of Pavlovich’s finishes came in the first round, which is the longest streak in modern UFC history.
Pavlovich also enjoys the highest knockdown rate in UFC history. Per 15 minutes, Pavlovich averages a record 6.31 knockdowns, which is more than two knockdowns higher than Drew McFedries, who sits in second place with 4.27.
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His absurd knockdown rate makes more sense when you see how Pavlovich, who weighed in at 260.5 pounds for his most recent fight against Curtis Blaydes, also holds the second highest strike rate in UFC history. Landing an overwhelming 8.72 strikes per minute, it’s no wonder his opponents eventually drop to the mat.
But for the first time in Pavlovich’s career, he faces an elite, technical striker who averages a shorter fight length than him. Despite Pavlovich’s two sub-minute knockouts, the No. 4 ranked Aspinall averages four seconds less fight time than his Russian counterpart at 2 minutes and 19 seconds, the shortest average fight time in UFC history.
Not only that, but Aspinall doesn’t fall too far behind Pavlovich’s exceptional striking statistics, either. While he doesn’t knock opponents down nearly as often, Aspinall still has the fifth highest knockdown average in UFC history at 2.78 knockdowns per minute. He also sits just behind Pavlovich at 7.65 strikes per minute, about one strike less than Pavlovich.
Where Aspinall starts to get ahead is his efficiency. Aspinall lands 66.3 percent of his strikes thrown. As we highlighted with Pereira in our UFC 295 main event spotlight, Aspinall also targets the body and legs far more often than his opponent, making his striking very unpredictable. Pavlovich has primarily been a headhunter in his UFC career, landing 93.1 percent of his strikes to the head. Aspinall, on the other hand, lands 67.7 percent of his strikes to the head, 14.5 percent to the body and 17.7 percent to the legs.
How to Watch UFC 295: Procházka vs Pereira
When it comes to defense, Aspinall has Pavlovich beat, as well. Aspinall only absorbs 2.9 strikes per minute versus Pavlovich’s 4.33. While, on paper, it’s merely a punch-and-a-half less between the two, when 260-pound elite martial artists are landing strikes, that one strike difference could pay dividends.
Another key element is Aspinall’s exceptional grappling. Aspinall has landed 100 percent of his takedowns attempted thus far in his UFC career, and has never been taken down. Not only does he land vicious ground-and-pound from top position, where he spends 15.9 percent of his Octagon time, Aspinall is always looking for a submission.
Aspinall attempts 1.85 submissions per 15 minutes, which is the third highest rate in heavyweight history. He is also one of three fighters in UFC history to secure a straight armbar submission, which he locked in against Alexander Volkov in March 2022.
Meanwhile, Pavlovich doesn’t grapple… at all. Through seven UFC fights, Pavlovich hasn’t landed a single takedown and has only been taken down once.
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While he hasn’t necessarily needed to grapple, it’s fair pointing out that the only time Pavlovich was ever taken down, he lost. In his debut, Overeem took Pavlovich down and started raining down strikes, eventually getting the stoppage. Having won every fight since that loss five years ago, it might not be something to read much into. If you’re Aspinall, though, it is the one vulnerability shown on tape that he has the tools to exploit.
Another element to this fight that can’t be seen on paper is Aspinall’s movement and speed. Like Ciryl Gane and Jailton Almeida, Aspinall is part of the new generation of heavyweights that move on their feet as if they’re lightweights. While Pavlovich is no slouch, Aspinall’s movement has made him a difficult puzzle to solve for all of his opponents, even after sustaining a non-contact knee injury against Blaydes last summer. This movement might make it difficult for Pavlovich to find the target early, something Aspinall knows he needs to avoid at all costs, considering Pavlovich’s one-of-a-kind power.
So, will all these stats matter when the Octagon door shuts? Maybe, maybe not. With any mixed martial arts fight, but with heavyweights in particular, one punch or kick can turn the whole fight on its head in the blink of an eye.
However, two things are for certain: UFC 295’s co-main event features two of the best strikers the UFC heavyweight division has seen in years, and whoever leaves the Octagon with their hand raised on November 11 will pose a serious threat to Jones when he returns from his injury.
UFC 295: Procházka vs Pereira took place live from Madison Square Garden in New York City on November 11, 2023. See the Final Results, Official Scorecards and Who Won Bonuses - and relive the action on UFC Fight Pass!
